Migration OTA TEAM Anders studieren! Migration Schedule 09.00 – 10.00 10.00 – 10.15 Migration – Background (V.Büsch) Critical aspects of possible future legislation (U. Brasche) 10.15 – 10.30 Organizational details 10.30 – 10.45 Break 10.45 – 11.15 Lecture on Turkish Labour Migration (O. Zengingönül) 11.15 – 11.45 Presentation on Turkish Labour Migration (Students from the OTA Hochschule) 11.45 – 12.00 Each group search for possible questions 12.00 – 12.20 How to ask questions (T. Burger-Menzel) 12.20 – 13.00 Development of questionnaire (Country) 13.00 – 14. 00 Lunch time Anders studieren! Migration – Content 1. Introduction 2. Migration Theories 3. Basic facts about migration within the European Union Anders studieren! Migration - Introduction The population in most European countries is aging Main Reason: Sharp decline in the fertility rate Another Reason: Increase in life expectancy The aging process goes together with a reduction in the population Example: Germany would need each year 400.000 immigrants to compensate for the reduction Birg, H. (2005) Anders studieren! Migration - Introduction Source: Sachverständigenrat (2004), S. 61 Anders studieren! Migration - Introduction Source: Sachverständigenrat (2004), S. 62 Anders studieren! Migration - Introduction Source: http://www.sicherheit-heute.de/index.php?cccpage=Migration&set_z_artikel=184 Anders studieren! Migration - Introduction But is it necessary to compensate for the reduction? Economic perspective: In Germany 4 million people are jobless So does the economy need immigrants? It depends if immigrants are Perfect Subsitutes or Perfect Complements in terms of input factor labour Anders studieren! Migration - Introduction Focus: Individual Perspective Migration comes from Latin: Migrare = Move Why do people move? (blue) Why do people stay? (pink) Brainstorming Anders studieren! Migration – Introduction –Classification Type Characteristic 1. Spatial a) Mobility with domicile change b) Distance Intraregional: internal migration or urban-rural migration Interregional International: cross-border 2. Temporal Period: dimension 12 months = permanently < 12 months = temporarily 3. Extent Number of mobile persons single - collective - mass 4. Legal status Legal or illegal immigrants 5. Migration Voluntary or obligatory decision Source: Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), S. 7f. Anders studieren! Migration - Introduction Examples of voluntary migration: • Job market-induced migration (immigrant, seasonal or work contract employees) • • Education-based migration Migration due to family reunion Examples of obligatory migration: • Natural disasters (drought, flooding, tsunami, famine, technical disasters...) • Human acts (civil war, persecution, slavery...) Source: Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), p. 8 Anders studieren! Migration - Introduction Source: Bericht des Sachverständigenrates (2004), S. 20 Anders studieren! Theories of Migration Economic migration models 1 . Human capital model 2. Model with perfect competition 3. Gravitation model 4. Push-Pull model Source: Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), S. 21f. Anders studieren! Theories of migration Human capital model (Intertemporal investment calculation) Migration understood as an investment in human capital (based on ideas of Sjaastad 1962) Following factors affect the migration decision: • Qualification/Education (enriching capacity and possibility to get a good job) • Age (younger people have a higher pay-back period) • Risk preferences Source: Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), S. 27 Anders studieren! Theories of Migration Migration of highly-qualified people - positive selection Migration of low-qualified - negative selection Anders studieren! Theories of Migration Model with perfect competition Micro economic viewpoint Based on ideas by Berry and Soligo (1969) as well as Chiswick (1982) Assumption: Maximizing utilities with respect to the budget restriction which depends on wage level Migration from a low-wage to a high-wage country as long as equilibrium is reached (same wage in both countries) Source: Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), S. 31 Anders studieren! Theories of Migration Model with perfect competition 1. Wage(B) > Wage (A): A B 2. Wage(B) and Wage(A) 3. Wage(B) = Wage (A) Anders studieren! Theories of Migration Remarks Wage differentials alone are not able to explain migration, otherwise migration would be higher. Limited model in particular due to the assumptions: • Rational behavior (i.e. Perfect information about jobs and remuneration ) • Homogeneous work (same marginal productivity = same technology in both countries) • Full employment • No uncertainty • No migration costs • No migration barriers (e.g. work permits, recognition of qualifications, cultural and linguistic barriers) Source: Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), S. 21f. Anders studieren! Theories of Migration Variation of assumptions Based on Harris/Todaro (1970) Target: Explain rural-urban migration + Probability to find a new job in the target area expected wage level + Migration costs + No homogeneity of workers [i.e. domestic and immigrant workers are not perfect substitutes] Source: Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), p.25f. Anders studieren! Theories of Migration Gravitation Model Based on ideas of Ravenstein (1885) Model follows the law of gravity (1666) of I. Newton i.e. gravitation strength depends on mass and distance Size of the population in the origin and target region and distance! de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isaac_Newton Networks play an important role ("friends and relatives effect") Source: Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), p. 29 Anders studieren! Theories of Migration Push-Pull model Based on ideas of Lee 1966 Starting point: the gravitation model 1. 2. Four factors: Factors regarding the origin area (Push) Factors regarding the target area (Pull) Examples from Lee: Climate and educational system 3. Intermediate obstacles (distance, immigration laws) [Distance my be subjective or objective] 4. Individual factors (age, family status, network, qualification) Only in theory do people have perfect information. In reality the individual perception is more important. Source: Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), p. 31 Anders studieren! Theories of Migration Economic and political mismatches : • Rising economy – stagnating economy • Functioning job markets - unemployment • Higher wage level - lower wage level • Democratic system - ethnic or religious oppression • High - low level of the social insurance systems • High – low development of the infrastructure • High – low quality of the environment Another important pull-factor: • Cultural affinity (language, history, cultural development...) Source: : Münz et al: Zuwanderung nach Deutschland; München; 1997; p.15 and Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), p. 31 Anders studieren! Theories of Migration Source: www.chkorte.de/ mexiko/pushpull.gif Anders studieren! Theories of Migration So why don't many move? Migration/transaction costs, such as • moving expenses, • information costs, • costs of learning a new language… Home location-specific, not-transferable knowledge (sunk costs), such as • standards • values • manners • local authorities • informal channels • consumer and leisure facilities • income possibilities Source: Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), p. 3 Anders studieren! Migration within the EU Future prospects: The economic and social differences within the European Union will decrease Migration flows within the European Union states shrink Source: Münz et al: Zuwanderung nach Deutschland; München; 1997; S.15 Crucial factor for European migration today: Existing legislation and migration policy decisions Source: Münz et al: Zuwanderung nach Deutschland; München; 1997; S.20 Within the EU, people have the basic right of free movement of labour Source: Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), S. 2 However .... Anders studieren! Migration within the EU Transitional arrangements set out in the Accession Treaty: Limited free movement during a transitional period in the extended European Union for a maximum duration of 7 years (exception: Malta and Cyprus) Transitional period: "2 plus 3 plus 2" (phase 1 ends on 30 April 2006) Sweden, Ireland and UK of the European Union 15 do not take part Before the end of phases 1+2 the Commission has to write a report The member states (EU 15) themselves have to notify their intentions for the next phase to the Commission in advance Source: Communication from the Commission to the Council, the European Parliament, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions, 08.02.2006 Anders studieren! Migration within the EU Some results of the report: 1. There seems to be no link between transitional arrangements and extent of migration 2. Flow of workers has been rather small 3. And too small to affect the European Union job market as a whole (Before and after the extension the share of the EU10 citizens of the resident population of each individual EU15 member state remains relatively stable) 4. There is no indication that domestic labor is being substituted by the limited inflow of workers from the EU10 5. Migration after the extension has had a positive effect on the national economies of the EU15-member states Source: Communication from the Commission to the Council, the European Parliament, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions, 08.02.2006 Anders studieren! Outlook Approximately 75% of all Turks in Western Europe live in Germany What will the future of Turkish migration be like? Quelle: Bericht des Sachverständigenrates (2004), S. 25 Anders studieren! References Birg, H. (2005): Die ausgefallene Generation – Was die Demographie über unsere Zukunft sagt Communication from the commission to the council, the parliament, the european economic and social committee and the committee of the regions (2006): Report on the Functioning of the Transitional Arrangements set out in the 2003 Accession Treaty (period 1 May 2004-30 April 2006) Goldberg, A., Halm, D., Sen, F. (2004): Die deutschen Türken Global Commission on International Migration (Hrsg.), (2006), Migration in einer interdependenten Welt: Neue Handlungsprinzipien: Bericht der Weltkommission für internationale Migration Münz, R., Seifert, W., Ulrich, R. (1997): Zuwanderung nach Deutschland – Strukturen, Wirkungen, Perspektiven Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005): Auswirkungen der internationalen Migration auf die Bundesrepublik Deutschland – Theoretische und empirische Analysen vor dem Hintergrund der EU-Osterweiterung Sachverständigenrat für Zuwanderung und Integration im Auftrag der Bundesregierung in Zusammenarbeit mit dem europäischen forum für Migrationsstudien (efms) an der Universität Bamberg (2004): Migrationsbericht Anders studieren! Organizational Details Group 1: France Group 2: Spain and Turkey Group 3: Press and Czech Group 4: UK Anders studieren!