Migration
OTA TEAM
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Migration Schedule
09.00 – 10.00
10.00 – 10.15
Migration – Background (V.Büsch)
Critical aspects of possible
future legislation (U. Brasche)
10.15 – 10.30 Organizational details
10.30 – 10.45 Break
10.45 – 11.15 Lecture on Turkish Labour
Migration (O. Zengingönül)
11.15 – 11.45 Presentation on Turkish
Labour Migration
(Students from the OTA Hochschule)
11.45 – 12.00 Each group search for possible questions
12.00 – 12.20 How to ask questions (T. Burger-Menzel)
12.20 – 13.00 Development of questionnaire (Country)
13.00 – 14. 00 Lunch time
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Migration – Content
1. Introduction
2. Migration Theories
3. Basic facts about migration within the
European Union
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Migration - Introduction
The population in most European countries is aging
Main Reason: Sharp decline in the fertility rate
Another Reason: Increase in life expectancy
The aging process goes together with a reduction in the population
Example: Germany would need each year 400.000 immigrants to
compensate for the reduction
Birg, H. (2005)
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Migration - Introduction
Source: Sachverständigenrat (2004), S. 61
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Migration - Introduction
Source: Sachverständigenrat (2004), S. 62
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Migration - Introduction
Source: http://www.sicherheit-heute.de/index.php?cccpage=Migration&set_z_artikel=184
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Migration - Introduction
But is it necessary to compensate for the reduction?
Economic perspective:
In Germany 4 million people are jobless
So does the economy need immigrants?
It depends if immigrants are
Perfect Subsitutes
or
Perfect Complements
in terms of input factor labour
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Migration - Introduction
Focus: Individual Perspective
Migration comes from Latin: Migrare = Move
Why do people move?
(blue)
Why do people stay?
(pink)
Brainstorming
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Migration – Introduction –Classification
Type
Characteristic
1. Spatial
a) Mobility with domicile change
b) Distance
Intraregional:
internal migration or urban-rural migration
Interregional
International:
cross-border
2. Temporal
Period:
dimension
12 months = permanently
< 12 months = temporarily
3. Extent
Number of mobile persons
single - collective - mass
4. Legal status Legal or illegal immigrants
5. Migration
Voluntary or obligatory
decision
Source: Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), S. 7f.
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Migration - Introduction
Examples of voluntary migration:
•
Job market-induced migration
(immigrant, seasonal or work contract employees)
•
•
Education-based migration
Migration due to family reunion
Examples of obligatory migration:
•
Natural disasters
(drought, flooding, tsunami, famine, technical disasters...)
•
Human acts
(civil war, persecution, slavery...)
Source: Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), p. 8
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Migration - Introduction
Source: Bericht des Sachverständigenrates (2004), S. 20
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Theories of Migration
Economic migration models
1 . Human capital model
2. Model with perfect competition
3. Gravitation model
4. Push-Pull model
Source: Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), S. 21f.
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Theories of migration
Human capital model
(Intertemporal investment calculation)
Migration understood as an investment in human capital
(based on ideas of Sjaastad 1962)
Following factors affect the migration decision:
• Qualification/Education
(enriching capacity and possibility to get a good job)
• Age
(younger people have a higher pay-back period)
• Risk preferences
Source: Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), S. 27
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Theories of Migration
Migration of highly-qualified people - positive selection
Migration of low-qualified - negative selection
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Theories of Migration
Model with perfect competition
Micro economic viewpoint
Based on ideas by Berry and Soligo (1969) as well as Chiswick (1982)
Assumption: Maximizing utilities with respect to the budget
restriction which depends on wage level
Migration from a low-wage to a high-wage country as long
as equilibrium is reached (same wage in both countries)
Source: Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), S. 31
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Theories of Migration
Model with perfect competition
1. Wage(B) > Wage (A):
A
B
2. Wage(B) and Wage(A)
3. Wage(B) = Wage (A)
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Theories of Migration
Remarks
Wage differentials alone are not able to explain migration,
otherwise migration would be higher.
Limited model in particular due to the assumptions:
•
Rational behavior (i.e. Perfect information about jobs and remuneration )
•
Homogeneous work (same marginal productivity = same technology in both
countries)
•
Full employment
•
No uncertainty
•
No migration costs
•
No migration barriers (e.g. work permits, recognition of qualifications,
cultural and linguistic barriers)
Source: Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), S. 21f.
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Theories of Migration
Variation of assumptions
Based on Harris/Todaro (1970)
Target: Explain rural-urban migration
+ Probability to find a new job in the target area  expected wage level
+ Migration costs
+ No homogeneity of workers
[i.e. domestic and immigrant workers are not perfect substitutes]
Source: Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), p.25f.
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Theories of Migration
Gravitation Model
Based on ideas of Ravenstein (1885)
Model follows the law of gravity (1666) of I. Newton
i.e. gravitation strength depends on mass and distance
Size of the population in the origin and target region
and distance!
de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isaac_Newton
Networks play an important role ("friends and relatives effect")
Source: Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), p. 29
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Theories of Migration
Push-Pull model
Based on ideas of Lee 1966
Starting point: the gravitation model
1.
2.
Four factors:
Factors regarding the origin area (Push)
Factors regarding the target area (Pull)
Examples from Lee: Climate and educational system
3.
Intermediate obstacles (distance, immigration laws)
[Distance my be subjective or objective]
4.
Individual factors (age, family status, network, qualification)
Only in theory do people have perfect information.
In reality the individual perception is more important.
Source: Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), p. 31
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Theories of Migration
Economic and political mismatches :
•
Rising economy – stagnating economy
•
Functioning job markets - unemployment
•
Higher wage level - lower wage level
•
Democratic system - ethnic or religious oppression
•
High - low level of the social insurance systems
•
High – low development of the infrastructure
•
High – low quality of the environment
Another important pull-factor:
•
Cultural affinity (language, history, cultural development...)
Source: : Münz et al: Zuwanderung nach Deutschland; München; 1997; p.15 and
Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), p. 31
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Theories of Migration
Source:
www.chkorte.de/
mexiko/pushpull.gif
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Theories of Migration
So why don't many move?
Migration/transaction costs, such as
• moving expenses,
• information costs,
• costs of learning a new language…
Home location-specific, not-transferable knowledge (sunk costs), such as
• standards
• values
• manners
• local authorities
• informal channels
• consumer and leisure facilities
• income possibilities
Source: Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), p. 3
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Migration within the EU
Future prospects:
The economic and social differences within the European Union will decrease
 Migration flows within the European Union states shrink
Source: Münz et al: Zuwanderung nach Deutschland; München; 1997; S.15
Crucial factor for European migration today: Existing legislation and migration
policy decisions
Source: Münz et al: Zuwanderung nach Deutschland; München; 1997; S.20
Within the EU, people have the basic right of free movement of labour
Source: Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), S. 2
However ....
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Migration within the EU
Transitional arrangements set out in the Accession Treaty:
Limited free movement during a transitional period in the extended European
Union for a maximum duration of 7 years
(exception: Malta and Cyprus)
Transitional period: "2 plus 3 plus 2" (phase 1 ends on 30 April 2006)
Sweden, Ireland and UK of the European Union 15 do not take part
Before the end of phases 1+2 the Commission has to write a report
The member states (EU 15) themselves have to notify their intentions for the
next phase to the Commission in advance
Source: Communication from the Commission to the Council, the European
Parliament, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the
Regions, 08.02.2006
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Migration within the EU
Some results of the report:
1.
There seems to be no link between transitional arrangements and extent
of migration
2.
Flow of workers has been rather small
3.
And too small to affect the European Union job market as a whole
(Before and after the extension the share of the EU10 citizens of the resident
population of each individual EU15 member state remains relatively
stable)
4.
There is no indication that domestic labor is being substituted by the
limited inflow of workers from the EU10
5.
Migration after the extension has had a positive effect on the national
economies of the EU15-member states
Source: Communication from the Commission to the Council, the European
Parliament, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the
Regions, 08.02.2006
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Outlook
Approximately 75% of all Turks in
Western Europe live in Germany
What will the future of Turkish
migration be like?
Quelle: Bericht des Sachverständigenrates (2004), S. 25
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References
Birg, H. (2005): Die ausgefallene Generation – Was die Demographie über unsere
Zukunft sagt
Communication from the commission to the council, the parliament, the european
economic and social committee and the committee of the regions (2006): Report on
the Functioning of the Transitional Arrangements set out in the 2003 Accession Treaty
(period 1 May 2004-30 April 2006)
Goldberg, A., Halm, D., Sen, F. (2004): Die deutschen Türken
Global Commission on International Migration (Hrsg.), (2006), Migration in einer
interdependenten Welt: Neue Handlungsprinzipien: Bericht der Weltkommission für
internationale Migration
Münz, R., Seifert, W., Ulrich, R. (1997): Zuwanderung nach Deutschland – Strukturen,
Wirkungen, Perspektiven
Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005): Auswirkungen der internationalen Migration auf die
Bundesrepublik Deutschland – Theoretische und empirische Analysen vor dem
Hintergrund der EU-Osterweiterung
Sachverständigenrat für Zuwanderung und Integration im Auftrag
der Bundesregierung in Zusammenarbeit mit dem europäischen forum für
Migrationsstudien (efms) an der Universität Bamberg (2004): Migrationsbericht
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Organizational Details
Group 1: France
Group 2: Spain and Turkey
Group 3: Press and Czech
Group 4: UK
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