The Global Technology Revolution
Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and their synergies with Information Technology by 2015
"Trendpfade und ihre Eintrittstickets "
Das Zusammenspiel potentieller Interaktionsfelder und ihrer Effekte in der
Technologie Revolution bis 2015
Unterscheiden Sie zwischen
"Erfinden der Zukunft" und „Vorhersagen der Zukunft"
Michael Klemen
February 2002
Page 1
The Global Technology Revolution
Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and their synergies with Information Technology by 2015
1.
How to do it
Szenarien aus den Arbeitsgebieten
Strategische
Vision
Extrapolieren
über Roadmaps
Automation &
Control
Individuum
Retropolieren
aus Szenarien
Neue
Information &
Communication
Lightning
Produkte
Neue
Geschäft
Technologien
Kundenanforderungen
Kunden
Neue
Ökonomie
Umwelt
Medical
Technologien
Neue
Technologie
Power
Kunden
Geschäftsmöglichkeiten
Transportation
Source: FAZ, Siemens, Feb.2002
heute
February 2002
kurzfristig
mittelfristig
Gesellschaft
Politik
Märkte
Laufendes
Einflussfaktoren
Wettbewerb
langfristig
Zeithorizont
Page 2
The Global Technology Revolution
Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and their synergies with Information Technology by 2015
1.
Hype cycles
Peak of
Inflated
Expectations
Plateau of
Productivity
Slope of
Enlightenment
Visibility
Perceived
Benefit
Technology
Trigger
Actual
Benefit
Type A Adoption
February 2002
Trough of
Disillusionment
Type B Adoption
Maturity
Type C Adoption
Source: Gartner Research
Page 3
The Global Technology Revolution
Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and their synergies with Information Technology by 2015
1.
“e” Hype cycle
2006 to 2008
E-Business Ends
„E“ is Best
Era on NLOs
European
IPOs 1999 Dot-Com Share Fallout
U.S. Xmas
1998
Visibility
Post-Internet
Businesses
Investor Disillusionment
Brick-and-Mortar Failures
U.S. IPOs
1997/1998
Dot-Com Shakeout
Optimised E-Business
Business Disillusionment
Dot-Com
Starts
„True“ E-Business Emerges
Internet
Web
Technology Peak of inflated
Trigger
Expectations
‘90-‘96
February 2002
‘97
‘98
‘99
Trough of
Disillusionment
‘00
‘01
Year
‘02
Slope of
Enlightenment
‘03
‘04
Plateau of
Productivity
‘05
‘06
‘07
‘08
Source: Gartner Research
Page 4
The Global Technology Revolution
Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and their synergies with Information Technology by 2015
1.
CRM Hype cycle
CRM Analytics
Contact Center
CRM
State-Based
Analytics
Rules-Based Personalization
WAP
Visibility
Web
Collaboration
VolP
Call Center
Proprietary Data Structures
CMS
ACD
SFA
Universal Queue
E-Mail
Marketing
IVR
Web Measurement
EAI
Database Marketing
ERMS
SelfAffinity Programs
ServiceBanner Ads
Wireless
ASP‘s Unassisted
CRM
Selling
CRM Infrastructures
Technology Peak of inflated
Trough of
Trigger
Disillusionment
Expectations
Type A Adoption
Type B Adoption
Maturity
February 2002
Slope of
Enlightenment
Plateau of
Productivity
Type C Adoption
Source: Gartner Research
Page 5
The Global Technology Revolution
Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and their synergies with Information Technology by 2015
1.
Wireless cycle
2003 – 2004
Wireless
technology
adapted in most
software
applications
Wireless
fever
Benefit
Wireless
available in
market
leaders
2004 - 2005
Expectations of users
not widely met
2001
2008
2006
Some
enterprises will
gain great
success
Devices available
Limited Software
1994 - 1997
Technology Peak of inflated
Trigger
Expectations
Type A Adoption
February 2002
Trough of
Disillusionment
Type B Adoption
Time
Slope of
Enlightenment
Plateau of
Productivity
Type C Adoption
Source: Gartner Research
Page 6
The Global Technology Revolution
Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and their synergies with Information Technology by 2015
2.
Outlook
Range of potential interacting areas and effects
of the Technology Revolution by 2015
Source: RAND
February 2002
Page 7
The Global Technology Revolution
Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and their synergies with Information Technology by 2015
2.
Tickets
Technology Revolution by 2015
Trend Paths, Meta-Trends & Tickets
Source: RAND
February 2002
Page 8
The Global Technology Revolution
Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and their synergies with Information Technology by 2015
3.
Findings
Range of possible future developments and effects
from Genetically Modified Foods
Source: RAND
February 2002
Page 9
The Global Technology Revolution
Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and their synergies with Information Technology by 2015
3.
Findings
Range of possible future developments and effects
of Smart Materials
Source: RAND
February 2002
Page 10
The Global Technology Revolution
Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and their synergies with Information Technology by 2015
3.
Findings
Range of possible future developments and effects
of Nanotechnology
Source: RAND
February 2002
Page 11
The Global Technology Revolution
Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and their synergies with Information Technology by 2015
4.
Synergies
The synergistic Interplay of Technologies
Source: RAND
February 2002
Page 12
The Global Technology Revolution
Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and their synergies with Information Technology by 2015
Thank You
February 2002
Page 13

E-commerce in Europe Summer 2001